Quarterly Flash Revenue & Gross Margin — WD Flash segment (est.) → SanDisk standalone
Q1–Q4 '22 through Q4 '24: WD Flash segment estimates (~48% of total WD revenue). Actual flash revenue known for Q2'23 ($1.66B) and Q1'24 ($1.56B).
Q1–Q4 '26: SanDisk standalone (Q1–Q3 actual, Q4 = guided midpoint $8B). FY25 spinoff transition period not shown.
Q2 FY26 — Revenue by Segment
Datacenter $440M · Edge $1,700M · Consumer $907M
SNDK Standalone — Quarterly Progression
Q3 FY26: Datacenter up 233% QoQ. Q4 FY26 guided $7.75–8.25B.
Fab Timeline — Kioxia / SanDisk 50/50 JV (Japan)
All fabs operated as 50/50 JV — SanDisk receives 50% of output. Yokkaichi has produced NAND since 1999 (originally DRAM). Kitakami is new-build AI-era campus.
Yokkaichi Plant — Mie Prefecture, Japan
Operational
Fab 1–2
Est. 1993/1995. Originally DRAM, converted to NAND 1999. Fab2 rebuilt 2016 for 3D NAND. Mature nodes, cost-optimized.
Operational
Fab 3–4
Opened 2005/2007. First 300mm wafer fabs at Yokkaichi. High output efficiency. Now producing BiCS3/4 3D NAND.
Operational
Fab 5
Phase 1: 2011 (19nm planar NAND). Phase 2: 2014. Converted to 3D BiCS FLASH. Japan government subsidy recipient 2022.
Operational
Fab 6
Opened 2018. Dedicated 3D NAND from day one. BiCS5 (112L) and BiCS6 (162L). Primary volume fab for current generation.
Operational
Fab 7
Announced Oct 2020, operational 2022. CBA (CMOS Bonded to Array) technology. 218-layer BiCS8. Gov. subsidy up to ¥92.9B approved 2022.
Kitakami Plant — Iwate Prefecture, Japan
Operational
K1 / Fab 1
Ground broken 2022. Initially paused during 2023 NAND bust. Resumed and operational ~2024. BiCS7/8 technology. New campus, purpose-built for AI era.
Ramping
K2 / Fab 2
Operations began Sep 29, 2025. Produces 218-layer CBA (CMOS Bonded to Array) — most advanced NAND architecture. Gov. subsidy up to ¥150B (combined with Yokkaichi). Ramping in stages; meaningful output H1 2026.
JV Structure
50/50 Flash Forward JV
SanDisk and Kioxia split all output 50/50. Total JV capacity ≈ 30% of global NAND. Kioxia sold out all 2026 production. Neither party benefits from flooding market.
NAND Market Share — 2025/2026 (approx.)
SanDisk = WD/Kioxia JV output × 50%. Combined JV ~29–30% of global NAND bits.
NAND Fab Buildings — Operational vs Under Construction
WD/Kioxia count includes all 9 JV buildings (SanDisk receives 50% of output). Samsung estimate includes V- and P-series NAND lines.
Key NAND Capex — 2026 Announced Spend ($B)
Samsung and SK Hynix capex includes DRAM/HBM. Micron capex is total (majority DRAM). SanDisk/Kioxia JV capex is shared — SanDisk books ~50%.
Analyst Ratings & Price Targets — May 2026
| Firm |
Analyst |
Rating |
Price Target |
Upside vs $1,479 |
Date |
| Citigroup | Asiya Merchant | Strong Buy | $2,025 | +37% | May 19 '26 |
| Susquehanna | — | Buy | $2,000 | +35% | May 1 '26 |
| Bernstein | Mark Newman | Buy | $1,700 | +15% | May 4 '26 |
| Raymond James | — | Buy | $1,470 | -1% | May 1 '26 |
| Barclays | Thomas O'Malley | Hold | $1,200 | -19% | May 1 '26 |
| RBC Capital | Srini Pajjuri | Hold | $1,000 | -32% | May 1 '26 |
| Consensus | 19 analysts | Buy | $1,460 avg | -1% | — |
High PT: $2,350 · Low PT: $1,000 · 15 Buy/Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell. The spread is entirely a cycle-duration call, not a company quality call.
Price Target Distribution
10-Year Earnings Scenario (SemiAnalysis Bull Case)
Assumes upcycle holds through FY27, rollover FY28, trough FY29, next peak FY32–33. Cumulative ~$63B net income vs $219B market cap today.